Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
